Sunday, April 8, 2012

Preseason Rankings - Do They Matter?

Boston College defeated Ferris State 4-1 on Saturday to capture their 3rd national title since Michigan State defeated BC in the 2007 title game. Ferris State was right in this game until the very end, as Boston College scored two goals in the final 3:30 including an empty net goal. BC's Milner made numerous great stops in goal to help keep Ferris State off the board.

Boston College came into this season ranked #5 in both the USCHO and USA Today  preseason polls. Ferris State was unranked in both polls, but they did receive votes in the USCHO poll (#28 overall). This got me thinking, do preseason polls matter?

Going as far back as we could go, on short notice, we looked up the rankings of each Frozen Four team since the 1997-1998 season. The polls seem to show that it helps to be ranked in the top 10, but #1 overall isn't always the best thing. Only one team has won the national title in the same season that they were ranked #1 in either the USCHO or USA Today poll, and that team was the 2002 - 2003 Minnesota Golden Gophers. They took home the top spot in both preseason polls. There are only three other times that the preseason #1 team in either poll even made it to the national title game. North Dakota in the 2000 - 2001 season and Boston College in the 1999 - 2000 season took home the top spot in both preseason polls, they lost in the national title game. Outside of that you have to go to the 2006 - 2007 Boston College Eagles that came in #1 in the USA Today poll, and a co-number one in the USCHO poll.

The worst preseason ranking that still won the national title? The 2003 - 2004 Denver Pioneers came in #13 in the USCHO poll and #12 in the USA Today poll. The 2009 - 2010 edition of Boston College came in at #12 in both polls.

The average preseason rank for the national champion? 6.6

NCAA Champion Preseason Rankings




Champion USCHO USA Today





2012
BC 5 5
2011
Minnesota-Duluth 8 9
2010
BC 12 12
2009
BU 9 10
2008
BC 2 3
2007
Michigan St. 5 4
2006
Wisconsin 10 10
2005
Denver 7 7
2004
Denver 13 12
2003
Minnesota 1 1
2002
Minnesota 4 3
2001
BC 4 5
2000
North Dakota 4 5
1999
Maine 8 4
1998
Michigan 9 8 

Of the last 15 champions, seven of them have been ranked in the top five of the USCHO poll, and eight in the top five of the USA Today Poll. All but two have been ranked in the top ten, and everyone has been ranked in the top 13.

NCAA Runner-Up Preseason Rankings





Runner-Up USCHO USA  Today





2012
Ferris St. 28             NR
2011
Michigan 15 4
2010
Wisconsin 13 14
2009
Miami 8 8
2008
Notre Dame 8 8
2007
BC 1.5 1
2006
BC 3 5
2005
North Dakota 5 3
2004
Maine 12 13
2003
New Hampshire 4 4
2002
Maine 7 10
2001
North Dakota 1 1
2000
BC 1 1
1999
New Hampshire 11 8
1998
BC 14 12.5

Six runner-ups have been ranked in the preseason top five of either poll. Eight have been ranked in the top ten of the USCHO poll and 11 in the USA Today Poll. And up until Ferris State, everyone has been ranked.

NCAA Frozen Four Semi-Finalists




Frozen Four USCHO USA Today





2012
Union 11 11
2011
North Dakota 2 2
2010
Miami 4 1
2009
Bemidji St. 36 NR
2008
Michigan 10 10
2007
Maine 11 11
2006
Maine 11 11
2005
CC 14 12
2004
BC 3 3
2003
Cornell 8 8
2002
Michigan 5 4
2001
Michigan 2 2
2000
Maine 2 2
1999
BC 1 1
1998
New Hampshire 6 6  

 


Frozen Four USCHO USA Today





2012
Minnesota 19 16
2011
Notre Dame 17 16
2010
RIT 29 NR
2009
Vermont 20 NR
2008
North Dakota 1 1
2007
North Dakota 6 7
2006
North Dakota 7 6
2005
Minnesota 6 8
2004
Minnesota-Duluth 15 15
2003
Michigan 3 2
2002
New Hampshire 10 11
2001
Michigan St. 5 4
2000
St. Lawrence 12 10
1999
Michigan St. 5 5
1998
Ohio St. NR NR


11 of the 30 semi-finalists were ranked in the top five.  19 of the 30 semi-finalists were ranked in the top 10 in at least one of the two major polls. This means 11 of the 30 semi-finalists were ranked outside of the top 10.

The 1997 - 1998 Ohio State Buckeyes hold the honor of the only team since the 97-98 season to reach the Frozen Four without receiving a single preseason vote in either major poll. Vermont, RIT, Bemidji State, and Ferris State all were teams in the USA Today poll that didn't receive a vote in the preseason poll, but still managed to reach the Frozen Four.
 
 So what does this tell us?


Well, it's only logical to think that if you receive a lot of preseason votes, you are expected to be good. In the end, the teams that get the votes are there in the Frozen Four. And even though the hockey polls can get made fun of with how they react some weekends, they show they are in the ballpark before anyone even plays a game.

The question becomes, how long until someone outside of the top 13 wins a title?

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